E-mini ES 2020/01/07

Bear gap, mid range, Opening Range, 1fBO, bull MC, 1CHBO, WfBO, 1P, XT, HL MTR, 2E

Bar 2 and 3 look like a strong trend attempt, but think twice.
An Outside Bar is a Trading Range Bar, especially mid range of the prior day. Bar 1 was a Reversal Bar (although weak), that triggered long, so we would expect BB. Also yesterday is a Trend Bar and a Bull Signal Bar on the daily chart and we can expect Brs at the various Fibonacci levels. Bar 4 was at the 50% retrace of yesterday’s range, the bar 1 low was just above the 38% retrace.

Also check out this post about the open.

The Open – Some General Rules

E-mini S&P 500 Future 5 min chart (trend lines, arrows and boxed text drawn by hand)

daily chart
Always In Long (AIL) since 12/06 – one month!!

Bear Inside Bar, Signal Bar for a SE short tomorrow
some bears might see a poss. small head & shoulder (SHS) with 12/27

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E-mini ES 2019/12/03

Bear gap, below LOY, Opening Range, 1fBO, 1P, HL MTR, H2, mDB, 1CHBO, bull CH
triangle & bull channel

The 1P had a couple of good strengtheners:

  • 17tF of a SE below the prior bear SB
  • HL at support
  • strong RVB
  • 2E for the 3BR at the LOD

E-mini S&P 500 Future 5 min chart (trend lines, arrows and boxed text drawn by hand)

daily chart
Always In Short (AIS) since 12/03

Bull RVB, failed BO and no FT bar for yesterday’s bear BO bar
bulls managed to close 1t above the prior BO level (11/20 HL)

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E-mini ES 2019/11/13

Bear gap, mid range, WfBO, 1P, L2, H2, BP, fBO, mDB

The 1st bar of the day is a large RVB, but the large body (60%) gives it a taste of a large trend bar or TR/CX as well. The risk to buy on a SE above was also more than 6 points. It’s better to wait for a 2E, which came with the 1P a couple of bars later (it was also a test of the OOD).

I didn’t take the L2 short on b11 (despite the shrinking bodies – selling pressure), as I expected the market to go at least to COY. Also after a WfBO LOY I expect a fL2 and at least two pushes up from a decent 1P.

The large OO (the fL2) trapped a lot of bears, which probably tried to scale-in above the L2. We formed a bear RVB after the OO (a poss. L3 and DT with yesterday’s last swing), but that didn’t trigger short, instead it triggered long 1st, which makes it a small TR (SA and BB). More up to COY (magnet).

I also marked up a couple of bull signal bars and the targets based on the initial risk for a possible SE and a bar stop below.

E-mini S&P 500 Future 5 min chart (trend lines, arrows and boxed text drawn by hand)

daily chart
Always In Long (AIL) since 10/10
another test of 3100 and another H1 buy
some bears might see a head & shoulder top with the high of last week

Continue reading “E-mini ES 2019/11/13”